もし、炉心溶融物が東京の地下水帯に達したら、4000万人を避難させることについて深刻な議論を行わなければならないだろう。
太平洋への放射性物質の終わりなき放出は、私たちの生存期間だけでなく、子供達の生存期間まで続くだろう。東京とその近郊には、4000万人の人々が住んでいる。地下の炉心溶融物から放射性物質を放出し続けていることは、時折、水蒸気が出たり、放射線のレベルが大きく増加したりすることによって察しがつく。太平洋を越えて、いまのところ少なくとも２つの同僚評価済みの科学的な研究が、すでに初期の被曝によって、北米での死者や西海岸にある州で甲状腺の問題を抱えた子供達が増加しているという証拠を提供した。
生物蓄積と生物濃縮を通して、食物連鎖汚染が増加している。そして、新たに、フクシマ原発の地下に伸びる東京の地下水帯に接近している溶融燃料に関する懸念が明言された。炉心溶融物が東京の地下水帯に達したら、首都圏から4000万人を避難させることについて深刻な議論を行わなければならないだろう。不可能のように聞こえるが、安全な水を手に入れることができない地域に住むことはできない。
このような深刻な損傷を受けたプールから燃料の取り出しを開始する操作は、今まで試みたことがない。燃料棒は扱いにくく、とても重い。1本の重量は三分のニトン（約666キログラム）もある。しかし、プールも一緒にその建屋全体をコンクリートで包み込む方法がない限り、燃料棒を取り出さなければならない。建屋全体を包み込む選択について誰も議論していないが、プールから燃料棒を取り出すよりもずっと安全なように思える。しかし、全く危険がないわけではない。
例え、物事が今のような状態のままでも、付随的な被害は、もし、何世紀でなければ、何十年も継続するだろう。しかし、今の状態が続くとは考えにくく、少し挙げると、自然災害や時とともに起こる劣化、地震、地盤沈下、腐食など悪いことは起こるものだ。日が経つごとに、統計的な危険は、終末論的なシナリオへと向かって増えていく。
おそらく、物事が今のままでも、何百万人という人々が死亡するだろうし、最悪のことが起こった場合は、何十億という人々が死亡するであろうということ以外、物事がどのように進行するのか、誰も語ることができないし、わからない。
写真： 福島市大熊町の東京電力フクシマ第一原発で、放射性物質の拡散を防ぐために原子炉建屋の近くの地面に樹脂をスプレーしている作業員たち。
英語：
'If and when the corium reaches the Tokyo aquifer, serious and expedient discussions will have to take place about evacuating 40 million people'
We have endless releases into the Pacific Ocean that will be ongoing for not only our lifetimes, but our children’s' lifetimes. We have 40 million people living in the Tokyo area nearby. We have continued releases from the underground corium that reminds us it is there occasionally with steam events and huge increases in radiation levels. Across the Pacific, we have at least two peer-reviewed scientific studies so far that have already provided evidence of increased mortality in North America, and thyroid problems in infants on the west coast states from our initial exposures.
We have increasing contamination of the food chain, through bioaccumulation and biomagnification. And a newly stated concern is the proximity of melted fuel in relation to the Tokyo aquifer that extends under the plant. If and when the corium reaches the Tokyo aquifer, serious and expedient discussions will have to take place about evacuating 40 million people from the greater metropolitan area. As impossible as this sounds, you cannot live in an area which does not have access to safe water.
The operation to begin removing fuel from such a severely damaged pool has never been attempted before. The rods are unwieldy and very heavy, each one weighing two-thirds of a ton. But it has to be done, unless there is some way to encase the entire building in concrete with the pool as it is. I don't know of anyone discussing that option, but it would seem much 'safer' than what they are about to attempt...but not without its own set of risks.
And all this collateral damage will continue for decades, if not centuries, even if things stay exactly the way they are now. But that is unlikely, as bad things happen like natural disasters and deterioration with time...earthquakes, subsidence, and corrosion, to name a few. Every day that goes by, the statistical risk increases for this apocalyptic scenario. No one can say or know how this will play out, except that millions of people will probably die even if things stay exactly as they are, and billions could die if things get any worse.
Photo:
Workers spraying resin on the ground near the reactor buildings to protect the spread of radioactive substances at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant at Okuma town in Fukushima prefecture (AFP Photo)
（未翻訳）
RT: Are the fuel rods in danger of falling victim
to other factors, while the extraction process is ongoing? After all, it’s
expected to take years before all 1,300+ rods are pulled out.
CC: Unfortunately yes, the fuel rods are in danger
every day they remain in the pool. The more variables you add to this equation,
and the more time that passes, the more risk you are exposed to. Each reactor
and spent fuel pool has its own set of problems, and critical failure with any
of them could ultimately have the end result of an above-ground, self-sustaining
nuclear reaction. It will not be known if extraction of all the fuel will even
be possible, as some of it may be severely damaged, until the attempt is made
to remove it.
RT: Finally, what is the worst case scenario?
What level of contamination are we looking at and how dire would the
consequences be for the long-term health of the region?
CC: Extremely dire. This is a terrible answer to
have to give, but the worst case scenario could play out in death to billions
of people. A true apocalypse. Since we have been discussing Reactor 4, I'll
stick to that problem in particular, but also understand that a weather event,
power outage, earthquake, tsunami, cooling system failure, or explosion and
fire in any way, shape, or form, at any location on the Fukushima site, could
cascade into an event of that magnitude as well.
原文サイト：
Fukushima apocalypse: Years
of ‘duct tape fixes’ could result in ‘millions of deaths’
Russia Today Published
time: August 17, 2013 13:15
Edited time: August 18,
2013 13:41
フクシマ黙示録：長年にわたるダクト・テープ（銀色で幅の広い粘着テープ）の修理が数百万人の死者を出す結果になるかもしれない
ロシア・トゥデイ ２０１３年８月１７日 （８月１８日 編集）
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